Return on Reason
A podcast specifically focused on helping every person live their ideal life by helping them make better decisions around their finances, relationships, and life.
All Episodes
Is This Time Different?
<p>Is the 2025 stock market downturn driven by economic policies, such as tariffs, different from previous market crashes? We're joined by Justin Brown, Greenspring's Director of Investments, to discuss how this time, like every time, is different, but also how drawdowns and volatility are features, not bugs, of markets that reward long-term investors. We outline how investors should respond depending on the preparedness of their portfolio for an unexpected drawdown at an unknown time. We share how we're responding to find a silver lining that may not last long.</p> <p>Charts discussed:</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EoeWQjuigE" rel="nofollow">Full Webinar on Tariffs' Expected Impact on Prices, Costs, and Expected Returns</a></p> <p><a href="https://go.greenspringadvisors.com/chart-of-the-week" rel="nofollow">Subscribe to Greenspring's Chart of the Week</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Chapters</p> <p>00:00 Tariffs Are Driving Uncertainty1 – tariffs are designed to increase prices and are done for three reasons: revenue, restriction, and reciprocity</p> <p>04:01 Is This Time Different? 2, 3 – economic policy as a catalyst is unique, but investment markets' forward-looking response based on expected cash flows and risk is consistent</p> <p>16:00 How Should We Strategically React? 4 – The type of action depends on whether you, your financial plan, and your portfolio were built in anticipation of a market drawdown</p> <p>27:49 What Tactical Actions Should We Take? – Now is the time to opportunistically implement your plan through dynamic rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, monitoring for refinance opportunities, and evaluating whether to accelerate Roth conversions and gifting strategies</p> <p>39:19 Markets Reward Long-Term Investors – capital returns to its rightful owners in bear markets</p> <p> </p> <p>The Best of What We Researched So You Don’t Have To</p> <p>1 <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EoeWQjuigE" rel="nofollow">Greenspring’s March 2025 Webinar on Tarrif’s Impact on Prices, Costs, and Expected Returns</a> </p> <p>2<a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/trump-tariffs-bank-revenue-34fc5f0d" rel="nofollow"> Bank Trading Desks Are Minting Money From Trump’s Tariff Chaos (WSJ)</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/market-returns-through-a-century-of-recessions" rel="nofollow">3 Market Returns Through a Century of Recessions (DFA)</a></p> <p>4<a href="https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/lump-sum-investing-versus-cost-averaging-which-is-better" rel="nofollow"> </a><a href="https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/news/lump-sum-investing-versus-cost-averaging-which-is-better" rel="nofollow">Lump Sum Investing vs Dollar Cost Averaging (Vanguard)</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Greenspring Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</p>
Investing or Gambling? Where Do You Draw the Line?
<p>Are you investing or are you gambling? In episode 17 of Greenstream, we unpack evidence from casinos, sportsbooks, and academic finance to show how the odds work against gamblers but for investors. You’ll learn about:</p> <ul> <li>Why time is an investor’s ally but gambler’s enemy</li> <li>How the “favorite–longshot bias” from horse racing shows up in lottery stocks and IPOs</li> <li>Four practical ways to help stack the odds in your favor and invest like the House</li> </ul> <p>Subscribe now so you don’t miss what’s coming next: an inside look at the importance of Boards of Directors for organizations of all sizes and how to find opportunities to join one.</p> <p> </p> <p>Sources:</p> <p>1 Thaler, Richard H., and William T. Ziemba. 1988. "Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries." Journal of Economic Perspectives: <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.2.2.161" rel="nofollow">https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.2.2.161</a></p> <p>2 Sauer, Raymond. (1998). The Economics of Wagering Markets. Journal of Economic Literature. 36. 2021-2064. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4732178_The_Economics_of_Wagering_Markets" rel="nofollow">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4732178_The_Economics_of_Wagering_Markets</a></p> <p>3 <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160721-the-buzz-that-keeps-people-gambling" rel="nofollow">https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160721-the-buzz-that-keeps-people-gambling</a></p> <p>4 <a href="https://responsiblegambling.org/for-the-public/about-gambling/the-science-behind-gambling/" rel="nofollow">https://responsiblegambling.org/for-the-public/about-gambling/the-science-behind-gambling/</a></p> <p>5 Chague, Fernando and De-Losso, Rodrigo and Giovannetti, Bruno, Day Trading for a Living? (June 11, 2020). Available at SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=3423101</a> </p> <p>6 Barber, Brad M. and Lee, Yi-Tsung and Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance, The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Day Trading (December 31, 2012). Available at SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=529063" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=529063</a></p> <p>7 Ritter, Jay R., The Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings (1991). University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Academy for Entrepreneurial Leadership Historical Research Reference in Entrepreneurship, Available at SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=1505889" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=1505889</a></p> <p>8 <a href="https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/" rel="nofollow">https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/</a></p> <p>9 Asness, Cliff S. and Frazzini, Andrea and Israel, Ronen and Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Pedersen, Lasse Heje, Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk (January 22, 2015). Fama-Miller Working Paper: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2553889" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2553889</a></p> <p>10 Rizova, Savina and Saito, Namiko, Investment and Expected Stock Returns (July 8, 2020). Available at SSRN: <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=3646575" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=3646575</a></p> <p>11 American Dream: Is Your House Your Greatest Investment? | Greenstream #8 <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-_Eg-hHaPA&t=2s" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-_Eg-hHaPA&t=2s</a></p> <p>12 Real Estate: Expected Returns and Expected Headaches | Greenstream #9 <a href="https://youtu.be/Hhscc3TLEEY?si=VrRQwYSzFTAGMVTa" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/Hhscc3TLEEY?si=VrRQwYSzFTAGMVTa</a></p> <p>13 Bessembinder, Hendrik (Hank), Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? (May 28, 2018). <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2900447" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2900447</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Greenspring Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</p>
The Three Ways to Beat the Market (And Why Most Investors Don't)
<p>Pat Collins and Marcus Schafer discuss using evidence to inform your investment philosophy and why it’s important to have one. We dive into the three ways to beat the market, the evidence evaluating if those attempts are successful, and the three things investors can control to maximize their chances of success.</p> <p> </p> <p>Chapters</p> <p>00:00 Intro – The difference between the evidence of investing and the act of selling investments.</p> <p>03:01 Why We Invest – Having your money work as hard as you do to live your ideal life.</p> <p>05:50 Markets Work¹ – The evidence overwhelmingly suggests following an approach where the price is the best estimate of value.</p> <p>10:15 The Three Sources of Alpha²– Nobel Laureate Robert Merton’s framework for the three ways to beat the market.</p> <p>11:43 Skill vs. Luck in Investing³,⁴ – Skill is repeatable, luck is not.</p> <p>15:11 Risk Factors – Not all investments have the same expected return.</p> <p>20:18 The Three Reasons Why Active Managers Underperform – Costs, risks, and taxes.</p> <p>21:29 Costs Matter – How explicit and implicit costs are connected to performance.</p> <p>30:07 Risks Matter – Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.</p> <p>36:29 Taxes Matter⁵ – One of Wall Street’s hidden secrets is reporting pre-tax performance when investors care about after-tax wealth.</p> <p>41:27 Decisions and Outcomes – The importance of focusing on making good investment decisions based on the knowledge at the time, not the outcomes.</p> <p>48:39 The Golden Age of Investing – The traits that make great investors might surprise you.</p> <p> </p> <p>Sources</p> <p><a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-us-year-end-2023/" rel="nofollow">¹ SPIVA</a> – an annual study of active managers that finds 90%+ of US funds underperform the benchmark over 20+ years.</p> <p><a href="https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/three-sources-of-alpha-a-conversation-with-robert-c-merton" rel="nofollow">² Robert Merton’s Three Sources of Alpha</a> – traditional and information advantage, risk dimensions, and financial services alpha.</p> <p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Same-Ever-Guide-Never-Changes/dp/0593332709" rel="nofollow">³ Morgan Housel’s Same as Ever </a>– the power of being an average investor for an above average time.</p> <p><a href="https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/the-fund-landscape" rel="nofollow">⁴ Dimensional’s Fund Landscape Report</a> – the challenge of persistence and other factors driving active management underperformance. <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-after-tax-scorecard/" rel="nofollow">⁵ SPIVA After-Tax Scorecard </a>– tax inefficient investments are estimated to cost investors 1-2% per year, but the industry often reports pre-tax performance that doesn’t show this.</p> <p> </p> <p>Greenspring Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</p>
Are Financial Advisors Worth Their Fee?
<p>Do they add enough value to cover their fee? We dive into to unpacking the qualitative and quantitative components of potential value for investors from fee-only advisors. We also compare fee-only advice with other forms of advice and discuss why investment advice alone isn’t enough to justify 1% per year.</p> <p> </p> <p>Meet with Marcus & Pat: <a href="https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com" rel="nofollow">https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com</a></p> <p>Sign Up for Email Updates: <a href="https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast/" rel="nofollow">https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast/</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Chapters:</p> <p>00:00 Do Advisors Add Value Beyond Their Fee?</p> <p>03:48 Investor Motivations for Hiring an Advisor1,2 – only 7-12% of investors cite returns as the primary reason they are hiring an advisor</p> <p>09:41 Quantifying Advisor Value3,4 – the challenges of estimating value that is dependent on actions someone would take otherwise and incorporating nonfinancial factors</p> <p>12:39 Asset Allocation and Rebalancing5,6,7 – are you taking the right type of risk (diversified) or enough risk?</p> <p>25:17 Product Selection8,9 – do you know what fees you are paying and if you don’t, it’s probably more than necessary</p> <p>32:08 Asset Location – matching the tax-efficiency of different investments with the appropriate type of account</p> <p>40:43 Behavioral Coaching – helping investors understand when they shouldn’t take action and if they should take action, what is it?</p> <p>50:04 Generating Income in Retirement8 – and avoiding ‘Boomer Candy’ products that prey on the desire for income</p> <p>53:34 The Importance of Insurance – learning to detect the difference between insurance that protects and insurance that invests, which is typically inefficient</p> <p>57:11 Tax Planning and Projections – good investment advisors should fill the gap left by tax preparers focused on tax compliance</p> <p>01:02:16 Commissioned Advice – knowledgeable about the products they sell but incentivized to sell you more than you need</p> <p>01:07:12 Fee-Only Advice – point in time advice is good but proactive advice unlocks more opportunities to add value</p> <p>01:13:53 Different People Value Different Things At Different Times – the value of an advisor changes over time</p> <p> </p> <p>Sources:</p> <p>1 Why Do Investors Keep Their Advisor Around (Morningstar, 2024): <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/why-do-investors-keep-their-financial-advisors-around" rel="nofollow">https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/why-do-investors-keep-their-financial-advisors-around</a></p> <p>2 Dimensional Investor Study (2021): <a href="https://my.dimensional.com/2021-global-investor-study-key-takeaways" rel="nofollow">https://my.dimensional.com/2021-global-investor-study-key-takeaways</a></p> <p>3 Vanguard’s Advisor Alpha (2022): <a href="https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/articles/pdf/putting_value_on_your_value_quantifying_vanguard_advisors_alpha.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/articles/pdf/putting_value_on_your_value_quantifying_vanguard_advisors_alpha.pdf</a></p> <p>4 Russell’s Value of An Advisor (2025): <a href="https://russellinvestments.com/content/dam/ri/files/ca/en/individual-investor/insights/value-of-advisor.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://russellinvestments.com/content/dam/ri/files/ca/en/individual-investor/insights/value-of-advisor.pdf</a></p> <p>5 Money Doctors (Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny, 2012): <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2133429" rel="nofollow">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2133429</a></p> <p>6 The Three Ways To Beat The Market (Greenspring, 2025): <a href="https://youtu.be/XeGNGWNbF-8" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/XeGNGWNbF-8</a></p> <p>7 What Can We Learn From Elite Institutions (Greenspring, 2025): <a href="https://youtu.be/2wXKgVGUmyo" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/2wXKgVGUmyo</a></p> <p>8 Generating Retirement Income and the Allure of ‘Boomer Candy’ (Greenspring, 2025): <a href="https://youtu.be/Ms8uRmOC6EE" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/Ms8uRmOC6EE</a> </p> <p>9 The Truth About Annuities (Greenspring, 2025): <a href="https://youtu.be/2gGq4lX2yP4" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/2gGq4lX2yP4</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Follow on Apple Podcasts: <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982" rel="nofollow">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982</a></p> <p>Follow on Spotify: <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8" rel="nofollow">https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8</a></p> <p> </p> <p>Greenspring Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</p>